CFP Projection

Playoff odds

We played out the rest of the season 10,000 times using each game’s betting line and team power ratings. Updated Nov 11.

2026 College Football Playoff odds: each team’s chance to make the 12-team playoff, to earn a first-round bye, and its most likely seed. Rows are ordered by chance to make the playoff.

Team	PlayoffMake playoff	Bye	SeedLikely seed
Georgia	97%	76%	1(1–5), usually seeded 1 to 5
Miami	91%	55%	2(1–7), usually seeded 1 to 7
Alabama	85%	36%	4(1–8), usually seeded 1 to 8
Utah	84%	46%	2(1–7), usually seeded 1 to 7
Indiana	83%	43%	2(1–8), usually seeded 1 to 8
Texas	74%	26%	6(2–10), usually seeded 2 to 10
UCLA	70%	32%	3(1–8), usually seeded 1 to 8
Notre Dame	69%	11%	10(5–11), usually seeded 5 to 11
Wake Forest	59%	19%	4(3–11), usually seeded 3 to 11
Texas Tech	42%	8%	11(5–12), usually seeded 5 to 12
Ohio State	37%	6%	9(5–11), usually seeded 5 to 11
Tennessee	36%	7%	8(4–11), usually seeded 4 to 11
Boise State	36%	<1%	12(10–12), usually seeded 10 to 12
Iowa	35%	5%	10(5–11), usually seeded 5 to 11
USC	32%	7%	10(4–11), usually seeded 4 to 11
BYU	29%	4%	9(5–11), usually seeded 5 to 11
Ole Miss	28%	3%	9(5–11), usually seeded 5 to 11
Liberty	26%	<1%	12(11–12), usually seeded 11 to 12
Kentucky	24%	4%	9(5–11), usually seeded 5 to 11
Oregon	24%	3%	10(5–11), usually seeded 5 to 11
New Mexico	23%	<1%	12(10–12), usually seeded 10 to 12
LSU	17%	2%	10(5–11), usually seeded 5 to 11
Arizona	15%	2%	11(5–11), usually seeded 5 to 11
SMU	12%	<1%	11(7–12), usually seeded 7 to 12
Houston	10%	<1%	11(7–12), usually seeded 7 to 12
South Carolina	6%	<1%	10(5–11), usually seeded 5 to 11
Duke	6%	<1%	10(5–11), usually seeded 5 to 11

Show 20 more teams under 5%

Likely seed is where a team lands most often when it makes the playoff. The range in parentheses covers four of every five of those finishes. A bye goes to the top four seeds, who skip the first round.